Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
10K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.2K mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Daily Coinflip
As of Oct 14, 2026, 2:32 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 50.6% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 1.2K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
50.6%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
69%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
12
over 9h
Largest order
500 mana
791.5 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 9h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$791.5 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these !
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
! Block #DailyCoinflip to stop seeing these ! Yes = heads No = tails (Day 562) Current totals: 286 heads vs 275 tails Longest streaks: 10 heads (days 12-22); 9 tails (days 479-488) Yesterday’s flip: Tails @FairlyRandom will be used to generate the outcome 1 = heads 2 = tails Resolution can be expected within 24 hours after closing Noteworthy Gamblers: Longest win streak: @Skyguy (of 7) Longest loss streak: @QuestionableQuentin (of 11) Biggest win: @evan (of Ṁ109,593 profit on day 329) Biggest loss: @JannesH (of -Ṁ63,765 on day 367) Most flips: [Submit a comment or DM to be featured] Contingencies: Should @FairlyRandom fail to produce a response 24 hours after the close date, and after additional @FairlyRandom roll requests (one over here > one on the testing market), I will manually resolve it according to a Google coinflip (outcome is final). Should I fail to generate and/or resolve the outcome within a week after the market’s close, a mod may do so instead.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 14, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 2:36 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next1112 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting98%
- Stable consensus1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.224H+0.27D+0.2
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