Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
10K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
888.3 mana
Total volume
0 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Daily Coinflip
As of Oct 17, 2026, 3:48 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 50.5% (down from 51.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 888.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
50.5%
−0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours51.0% → 50.5%
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
83%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
4
Trades
4
over 38 min
Largest order
500 mana
602 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 38 min).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$602 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 3:56 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Quote-driven
A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.
- Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
- Little executed flow — price is quote-driven, not trade-driven
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
20Low
Where the price path tends to go next1499 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.524H-0.57D-0.5
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