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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 34d ago

I'm very likely to be #1 in my silver group. In the JULY season, will I be top 5 (next season)?

Final price
54.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 54.8%.

Final market price
54.8%
Event deadline
July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

I'm very likely to be #1 in my silver group. In the JULY season, will I be top 5 (next season)? The final Manifold price was 54.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 54.8%.

Market data as of
August 2, 2026 at 1:35 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
34d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the creator finishes in the top 5 (ranks 1 through 5, inclusive) of their assigned group leaderboard in the July 2026 season (Season 39) of Manifold Leagues. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the creator finishes in the top 5 (ranks 1 through 5, inclusive) of their assigned group leaderboard in the July 2026 season (Season 39) of Manifold Leagues. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Source of truth: The final standings of the creator's assigned league group as recorded on the Manifold Leagues page upon the conclusion of the July season (August 1, 2026, at 00:00 UTC). Edge Cases: If the creator is not placed in a league group or does not participate in the July season, this market resolves to NO. If Manifold Leagues are discontinued or the structure is altered such that group leaderboards no longer exist for the July season, this market will resolve N/A. Background Manifold Leagues are monthly competitions where users are grouped into cohorts of approximately 50 traders within different divisional tiers (Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Diamond, and Masters). Rankings are determined by monthly trading profits and unique trader bonuses on ranked markets. In the Silver division, the top finisher (Rank 1) skips a division to promote directly to Platinum for the next season, while ranks 2 through 7 promote to Gold. This market tracks whether the creator can carry their momentum to finish in the top 5 of their newly assigned group during the July 2026 season. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ10

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
54.8%
Resolves
Jul 31, 2026

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