Will Daniel Lord livestream between Aug 24 and September 1st in 2026?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Daniel Lord initiates at least one livestream on his main YouTube channel "Hiding in my room" (or any alternative channel verified to be his) between August 24, 2026 (00:00 UTC) and September 1, 2026 (23:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Daniel Lord initiates at least one livestream on his main YouTube channel "Hiding in my room" (or any alternative channel verified to be his) between August 24, 2026 (00:00 UTC) and September 1, 2026 (23:59 UTC). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Verification sources: Primary YouTube Channel: Hiding in my room (or any active channel he redirects to). Subreddits: r/HIMRFAM2 and r/HIMRFAM. Unofficial Discord servers: HIMR Discord (where Daniel participates under the username notdaniel0594_05557) and Uncensored Discord. Instagram: @danielhimr. Edge cases: If a livestream begins, it counts even if it is subsequently deleted, privated, or cut short due to technical issues, provided there is credible community evidence (e.g., screenshots, chat logs, Reddit posts, or Discord updates) confirming it occurred. Background Daniel Lord (HIMR) recently returned to YouTube after a period of absence. After deleting or privating much of his previous content due to personal and relationship disruptions, his return has been tracked by his community on the new active subreddit r/HIMRFAM2 (as the original r/HIMRFAM has restricted posting). Daniel is currently active on community Discord servers and Instagram, and has recently been discussing his new "car living" setups in his Tesla Model Y. This market tracks whether his return to content creation will include a live broadcast during the specified window.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 1, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 25, 12:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.