Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
52.3 mana
Total volume
69.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will I exercise every single day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)
As of Oct 13, 2026, 12:14 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 50.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 52.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
50.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (1 point over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
36%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
9
Trades
9
over 46h
Largest order
25 mana
69.3 mana traded across these 9 trades (last 46h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$69.3 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This is a commitment device market about maintaining a baseline of physical activity from 12 October to 18 October. YES if I complete all daily targets within the timeframe.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This is a commitment device market about maintaining a baseline of physical activity from 12 October to 18 October. YES if I complete all daily targets within the timeframe. Daily target: either 30+ minutes of jogging, cycling, swimming or stationary bike or 60+ minutes of taking a walk outside. NO i f I miss a single day for any reason whatsoever. Bonus: Every unique human trader gets a one-time Ṁ10 bonus at market close. Notes: I will not trade on this market.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 12:19 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
24Low
Where the price path tends to go next759 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~40h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H+0.56H+1.024H+0.17D+0.1
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