UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the OBR report headroom of £10bn or more against the stability rule?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution. Resolves YES if the OBR's October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook states a margin of £10.0 billion or more against the current budget (stability) rule in the rule's target year, after Budget measures, as printed in the outlook's executive summary.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution. Resolves YES if the OBR's October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook states a margin of £10.0 billion or more against the current budget (stability) rule in the rule's target year, after Budget measures, as printed in the outlook's executive summary. If it reports margins for more than one year, the target year named in the fiscal mandate governs. Resolution Foundation estimated about £5bn before any Budget measures on 7 September 2026. This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, before the speech and before the OBR publishes its forecast. The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above. If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 28, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 25, 6:22 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 45.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 28, 2026