Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.2%.
- Final market price
- 97.2%
- Event deadline
- September 2, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)? The final Manifold price was 97.2%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 97.2%.
- Market data as of
- September 5, 2026 at 1:27 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 2, 2026 at 1:47 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 46d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if incumbent U.S. Senator Ed Markey receives 60.0% or more of the vote in the Massachusetts Democratic U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if incumbent U.S. Senator Ed Markey receives 60.0% or more of the vote in the Massachusetts Democratic U.S. Senate primary held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve to NO if he receives less than 60.0% of the vote. The primary source of truth will be the certified election results published by the Elections Division of the Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. If official certification is delayed, the market may resolve using the final unofficial election night tallies (with 100% of precincts reporting) reported by the Associated Press or The Boston Globe. The vote share percentage will be calculated as the number of votes cast for Ed Markey divided by the total number of votes cast for all candidates in the Democratic Senate primary. Write-in votes will be included in the total if they are officially reported in the primary total. If the Democratic primary is canceled, postponed, or if Ed Markey does not appear on the ballot, the market will resolve to N/A. Background On September 1, 2026, Massachusetts voters cast their ballots in the state primaries. In the marquee statewide race, 80-year-old incumbent Senator Ed Markey faces a primary challenge from 47-year-old Representative Seth Moulton. Moulton has framed his campaign around a call for "a new generation of leadership," while Markey has leaned into his strong progressive credentials and support from figures like Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Bernie Sanders. This primary serves as another test of Markey’s electoral resilience. In 2020, Markey successfully defended his seat against a primary challenge from Representative Joe Kennedy III, winning 55.4% of the vote. This market asks whether Markey can clear a higher threshold and secure at least 60% of the vote against Moulton. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.