ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 11m ago

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday, Oct 23, 2026 than on Friday, Oct 16, 2026?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 58.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 34.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 200 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
58.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Stale priceResolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

200 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

34.8 mana

Total volume

34.8 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

1

Trades

5

over 15h

Largest order

14.6 mana

51.5 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 15h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$51.5 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 23, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 10:25 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next581 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet97%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%
  • Thin-liquidity spike1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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