Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
122.8 mana
Total volume
142.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will I avoid audiovisual media before 6 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)
As of Oct 14, 2026, 2:32 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 54.0% (up from 49.5% 24 hours earlier). It had 122.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
54.0%
+4.5 percentage points
over 24 hours49.5% → 54.0%
Stale priceResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
73%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
11
Trades
11
over 2 days
Largest order
100 mana
137 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 2 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$137 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This is a commitment device market about avoiding audiovisual media before 6 p.m. from October 12 through October 18.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This is a commitment device market about avoiding audiovisual media before 6 p.m. from October 12 through October 18. YES, if I avoid audiovisual media (YouTube, Twitch, Tiktok...) before 6 p.m.. Media related to my studies is exempt. NO, if I watch prohibited media, before 5 p.m., for more than three minutes total, on a day within the timeframe. Ṁ10 Bonus: Every human unique trader on this market receives a one-time Ṁ10 Bonus at market close. Thanks for participating. ❤
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 4.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (49.5% → 54.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 18, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 14, 2:36 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 73% of recent flow
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next742 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~9h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+4.57D+4.5
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