Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?80%42.0Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in September?80%54.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?46%25.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 19?91%19.0Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?5%49.7Netanyahu out by end of 2026?54%7.5Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?23%4.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 19?9%1.9US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?81%6.0Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?54%3.3Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?14%9.3Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?13%4.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?59%4.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 19?99%7.7Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?7%3.8Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?7%14.0
ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 42d ago

Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028

Final price
91.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 91.1%.

Final market price
91.1%
Event deadline
August 5, 2026 at 3:48 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028 The final Manifold price was 91.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 91.1%.

Market data as of
August 8, 2026 at 4:41 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 19, 2026 at 6:29 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
August 5, 2026 at 3:48 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
42d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Jason Arday is no longer employed by the University of Cambridge in any academic capacity (including as a professor, lecturer, or researcher) on or before December 31, 2027. The market resolves to NO if he remains employed by the University of Cambridge as of December 31, 2027.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Jason Arday is no longer employed by the University of Cambridge in any academic capacity (including as a professor, lecturer, or researcher) on or before December 31, 2027. The market resolves to NO if he remains employed by the University of Cambridge as of December 31, 2027. Source of Truth: Employment status will be verified using the official University of Cambridge Faculty of Education staff directory or via official statements from the University of Cambridge and major reputable news outlets (such as The Guardian, The Telegraph, or Times Higher Education). Leaves of Absence: If Professor Arday is on a temporary sabbatical, suspension, or medical leave of absence but remains officially on the university payroll, the market resolves to NO. Termination/Resignation: If he permanently leaves his role due to resignation, termination, retirement, or transfer to another institution, the market resolves to YES. Death: In the event of his death before the resolution date, the market will resolve to YES. Background Jason Arday (born 1985) is a British sociologist who was appointed Professor of Sociology of Education at the University of Cambridge in March 2023, making him the youngest Black professor in the university's history. In July and August 2026, Arday became the center of a major academic controversy following public allegations of extensive plagiarism in his PhD thesis and other academic papers. While some university investigations and academic journals had previously cleared him of wrongdoing, renewed media scrutiny and pressure from other academics have raised questions regarding his future tenure at Cambridge. This description was partly generated by AI.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ2.1K

Liquidity

Ṁ823

Total volume

Ṁ2.5K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
91.1%
Resolves
Aug 5, 2026

Related markets