Will Missouri Amendment 8 (constitutional office of county sheriff) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Missouri Amendment 8 (Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to support law enforcement by preserving the right of citizens to elect a county sheriff, prohibiting the removal of a county sheriff except by a writ of quo warranto, and recognizing the office of sheriff as part of the administration of justice?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (Mo. Const. art. XII, sec. 2(b)); effective 30 days after election. Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Fair ballot language: requires counties to elect a sheriff every four years (now statutory); places sheriff duties in the Constitution; elected sheriff removable only by writ of quo warranto initiated by the Attorney General. NO: Fair ballot language: no constitutional change; statutes on sheriff elections (4-year terms), duties and removal stay in effect unless changed by law. Results: resolves on the result certified by Missouri Secretary of State / Board of State Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures