Will Missouri Amendment 6 (initiative and referendum protections) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Missouri Amendment 6 (Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: expand the initiative and referendum petition process by making it a fundamental right; allow courts to revise ballot summaries through lawsuits; prohibit the legislature from weakening initiative or referendum powers; prohibit the legislature from changing or repealing laws enacted through the initiative process, or passing laws similar to those rejected by referendum, without approval from at least 80% of both chambers; and preserve existing majority vote and signature requirements for initiative and referendum petitions?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (Mo. Const. art. XII, sec. 2(b)); effective 30 days after election. No district-majority rule (Aug 4, 2026 Amendment 4 proposing one was rejected). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Fair ballot language: legislature cannot directly amend initiative-enacted laws; changes must be referred to voters by at least 80% of each chamber; legislature restricted from limiting initiatives/referenda; keeps 5%/8% signature rules and simple statewide majority. NO: Fair ballot language: no change to current constitutional provisions, which already give citizens the right to propose initiatives and referenda. Results: resolves on the result certified by Missouri Secretary of State / Board of State Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 65% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: SLU/YouGov, Aug 13-24, 2026: 48% support / 21% oppose / 32% unsure (https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/-pdf/august-2026-ballot-measures-write-up.pdf). The high undecided share tempers the seed.. Official source: https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures