Will Missouri Amendment 3 (repealing 2024 abortion-rights amendment) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Missouri Amendment 3 (Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: Repeal the 2024 voter-approved Amendment providing reproductive healthcare rights, including abortion through fetal viability; Allow abortions for rape and incest (under twelve-weeks' gestation), emergencies, and fetal anomalies; Allow legislation regulating abortion; Ensure parental consent for minors' abortions; Prohibit gender transition procedures for minors?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (Mo. Const. art. XII, sec. 2(b)); takes effect 30 days after the election. Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Fair ballot language: repeals Art. I Sec. 36 (2024); allows restricting abortion to medical emergency, rape/incest under 12 weeks, and fetal anomalies; allows regulation of providers; requires informed consent incl. parental/judicial consent for minors; bars public funding (limited exceptions); prohibits gender transition procedures for minors. NO: Fair ballot language: leaves Art. I Sec. 36 (2024) in place; abortion stays available through fetal viability; no ban on gender transition procedures for minors. Results: resolves on the result certified by Missouri Secretary of State / Board of State Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 45% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: SLU/YouGov, Aug 13-24, 2026, 900 likely voters: 43% support / 44% oppose / 13% unsure (https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/-pdf/august-2026-ballot-measures-write-up.pdf).. Official source: https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures