Markets priced 20–30%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
99 markets · 24 resolved YES (24%)
- Will the S&P 500 close above 7,800 on Friday, October 16, 2026?Manifold · Oct 17, 2026priced 22.5%NO✓
- Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?Polymarket · Oct 16, 2026priced 28.5%YES✗
- Will Trump Press Secretary Katie Zacharia last a year in the job?Manifold · Oct 16, 2026priced 29.1%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 16, 2026priced 25.8%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 13, 2026priced 23.4%YES✗
- Un nouveau site utilisé par des agents IA pour se coordonner est découvert entre le 5 et le 12 octobre 2026?Manifold · Oct 13, 2026priced 25.0%NO✓
- Un État utilise un modèle d'IA pour mener une cyberattaque contre un autre entre le 5 et le 12 octobre 2026?Manifold · Oct 12, 2026priced 23.2%NO✓
- Un nouveau modèle prend la tête du leaderboard d'Artificial Analysis entre le 5 et le 12 octobre 2026?Manifold · Oct 12, 2026priced 23.9%NO✓
- Will there be at least twice the number of YES holders than NO holders?Manifold · Oct 10, 2026priced 28.2%NO✓
- Will I find someone from Manifold Markets to do flat viewings for me in London?Manifold · Oct 8, 2026priced 22.3%NO✓
- Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket · Oct 4, 2026priced 23.2%YES✗
- Will JonTron release a video in 2026?Manifold · Oct 4, 2026priced 26.0%YES✗
- Ethereum price at Oct 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshi · Oct 2, 2026priced 24.5%YES✗
- Ethereum price at Oct 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshi · Oct 2, 2026priced 29.0%NO✓
- Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by October 1, 2026?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 27.0%NO✓
- Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 30, 2026priced 28.1%YES✗
- Will Brent crude settle at or above $100 on September 30, 2026?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 26.0%YES✗
- Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 21.9%NO✓
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?Polymarket · Oct 1, 2026priced 22.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 29, 2026priced 29.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 28, 2026priced 22.5%NO✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 26?Polymarket · Sep 26, 2026priced 29.5%YES✗
- Ethereum price at Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshi · Sep 25, 2026priced 21.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 25, 2026priced 21.5%NO✓
- 🇪🇺 Will the EU remove Alisher Usmanov from its Russia sanctions list by September 22?Manifold · Sep 22, 2026priced 23.4%YES✗
- Will another RSA challenge number be factored in 2026?Manifold · Sep 20, 2026priced 20.0%YES✗
- Will Progress MS-35 launch be delayed by more than a week?Manifold · Sep 16, 2026priced 24.4%NO✓
- Will Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11?Manifold · Sep 11, 2026priced 30.0%NO✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in August 2026?Kalshi · Sep 11, 2026priced 22.0%NO✓
- Will YES have fewer holders than NO? (24hr quick fuse)Manifold · Sep 10, 2026priced 24.7%NO✓
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Sep 2, 2026priced 21.0%NO✓
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 30, 2026priced 26.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 28, 2026priced 24.5%NO✓
- [Daily market] Will my company make a sale today?Manifold · Aug 28, 2026priced 26.0%NO✓
- Will Trump actually rename Lake Ontario to something more “American” before January 1?Manifold · Aug 27, 2026priced 21.3%YES✗
- Will my company make a sale today?Manifold · Aug 25, 2026priced 28.8%NO✓
- Will my company make its first sale today?Manifold · Aug 23, 2026priced 24.3%NO✓
- Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?Polymarket · Aug 23, 2026priced 26.5%YES✗
- Will either Aston Martin F1 car finish in the points in the 2026 Dutch GP?Manifold · Aug 23, 2026priced 22.0%YES✗
- Do you like 22% odds?Manifold · Aug 21, 2026priced 22.3%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 21, 2026priced 24.6%NO✓
- A National Mp publicly says Chris Luxon should go before end of Friday?Manifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 21.4%NO✓
- Do you like 26% odds?Manifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 24.6%YES✗
- Will there be codex reset on August 13,2026Manifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 20.1%NO✓
- Will anyone other than Farage and Binface get their deposit back in the 2026 Clacton by-election?Manifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 21.7%NO✓
- Will I see the total solar eclipse for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 21.4%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 11, 2026priced 25.5%YES✗
- Will Vinicius Junior sign for Arsenal?Manifold · Aug 6, 2026priced 20.5%NO✓
- Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?Manifold · Aug 2, 2026priced 25.7%NO✓
- Will $BTC cross $70000 before the end of July?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 24.6%NO✓
- Jack OR Mochi wins Masters Season 39Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 21.5%NO✓
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 27.2%NO✓
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 25.4%NO✓
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 27.7%NO✓
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Jul 29, 2026priced 23.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 27.7%NO✓
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Polymarket · Jul 28, 2026priced 27.6%NO✓
- Will the Fed hike rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?Manifold · Jul 29, 2026priced 29.6%NO✓
- Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Jul 29, 2026priced 25.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 28, 2026priced 29.3%NO✓
- Boi vai marcar presença da despedida do dig?Manifold · Jul 28, 2026priced 23.0%NO✓
- Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 20.1%YES✗
- Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 24, 2026priced 28.0%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 24, 2026priced 25.5%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 24, 2026priced 21.5%NO✓
- Will I publish my personal site/blog this month?Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 28.6%NO✓
- Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?Manifold · Jul 21, 2026priced 20.7%NO✓
- Will Argentina will face France in the final once again?Manifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 25.4%NO✓
- Will Kylian Mbappé score or assist a goal in the first half of the Semifinal match?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 28.0%NO✓
- Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 5x subscription on July 14 2026?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 28.0%YES✗
- Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 24.3%NO✓
- Either of Norway v England and Argentina v Switzerland go to penalty shootout?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 26.0%NO✓
- Will I permaban 10+ users by end July 12th?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 26.0%NO✓
- Will any senator die within July?Manifold · Jul 12, 2026priced 22.6%YES✗
- Will tetr.io account itzsushii have a TR rating ≥ 6,000 on July 12, 2026 at 12:00 AM EST?Manifold · Jul 12, 2026priced 22.3%NO✓
- Will Elliott Lehrer and Caroline Ellison go on a date in June?Manifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 24.4%NO✓
- Will BTC cross $65000 by 8Th July 2026 3Pm GSTManifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 29.9%NO✓
- Will they reset Fable usage on 07/07?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 21.1%NO✓
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Polymarket · Jun 6, 2026priced 29.5%NO✓
- Will GTA VI be delayed again?Manifold · Jul 4, 2026priced 25.0%NO✓
- Will somebody mammogram/managram me 1500 timesManifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 21.0%NO✓
- Will anyone send me 1000 or more Mana before July 1Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 27.7%NO✓
- Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before Europeans?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 27.0%NO✓
- Will Anthropic require ID verification in order to use Fable 5?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 27.1%NO✓
- Will Bitcoin be at or above 75k by the end of the month?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 23.6%NO✓
- Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before July 1?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 23.5%NO✓
- Will a current moderator lose their role before end of month?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 25.9%NO✓
- Christian Eriksen announce retirement by EOM JuneManifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 25.1%NO✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. durable goods orders rise at least 1.0% month-over-month?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 20.0%NO✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. new home sales be at least 650,000 (SAAR)?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 28.4%NO✓
- Will the S&P500 close at 7650.00 or higher in June 2026?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 29.6%NO✓
- Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $76 on June 29, 2026?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 26.6%NO✓
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded for a trade package including 6 or more draft picks(1st and 2nd rounders included)?Manifold · Jun 23, 2026priced 25.7%NO✓
- Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 24.4%NO✓
- Will this market get between 10-20 unique traders by June 20?Manifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 25.3%NO✓
- Will Pope Leo XIV speak publicly about the SSPX Episcopal consecrations before they occur on July 1, 2026?Manifold · Jun 17, 2026priced 29.8%YES✗
- Will going to the Bay Area / manifest cause my AI timelines to change?Manifold · Jun 14, 2026priced 27.7%NO✓
- Will Bitcoin be at 71K or higher at the weekManifold · Jun 14, 2026priced 24.6%NO✓
- Will the U.S. directly strike Iranian territory before August 1, 2026?Manifold · Jun 10, 2026priced 22.4%YES✗
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.