Will May 2026 U.S. new home sales be at least 650,000 (SAAR)?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 28.4%.
- Final market price
- 28.4%
- Event deadline
- June 24, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will May 2026 U.S. new home sales be at least 650,000 (SAAR)? The final Manifold price was 28.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 28.4%.
- Market data as of
- July 1, 2026 at 7:50 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 24, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 112d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for May 2026 reports new single-family houses sold in the United States at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 or higher. Use the total United States 'New Houses Sold' SAAR value from the initial May 2026 New Residential Sales release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for May 2026 reports new single-family houses sold in the United States at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 or higher. Use the total United States 'New Houses Sold' SAAR value from the initial May 2026 New Residential Sales release. Resolve NO if that value is 649,000 or lower. Do not use housing starts, building permits, housing completions, existing-home sales, regional values, unadjusted counts, median or average sales prices, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 New Residential Sales release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the May 2026 total new-houses-sold SAAR value unless there is no such release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_new_houses_sold_saar": 701000, "april_2026_mom_percent": -6.2, "april_2026_months_supply": 9.4, "april_2026_new_houses_for_sale_saar": 489000, "april_2026_new_houses_sold_saar": 622000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": -11.3, "march_2026_revised_new_houses_sold_saar": 663000, "release": "Monthly New Residential Sales, April 2026"}, "metric": "New single-family houses sold, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["Housing-starts markets are not duplicates.", "Building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "Existing-home-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Median-price, regional, unadjusted-count, year-over-year, and later-revision variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Census Survey of Construction schedule lists May 2026 New Residential Sales for June 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for May 2026", "threshold_units": "650,000 houses sold at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - April 2026 New Residential Sales PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales_202604.pdf - Census current New Residential Sales page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html