Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 27.7%.
- Final market price
- 27.7%
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 4:01 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st? The final Manifold price was 27.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 27.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 2, 2026 at 1:35 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 4:01 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 80d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the closing price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (trading under the ticker symbol SPCX on the Nasdaq Stock Market) on July 31, 2026, is strictly greater than its official initial public offering (IPO) price.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the closing price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (trading under the ticker symbol SPCX on the Nasdaq Stock Market) on July 31, 2026, is strictly greater than its official initial public offering (IPO) price. If the closing price on July 31, 2026, is less than or equal to the official IPO price, this market will resolve to NO. Rules and Edge Cases: The official IPO price will be the final offer price per share set by SpaceX in its final prospectus filed with the SEC (planned at $135.00 per share). The closing price will be determined based on the official Nasdaq closing price for SPCX on July 31, 2026, as reported by reputable financial reporting sources (e.g. Yahoo Finance or Google Finance). If the stock experiences a stock split, stock dividend, or similar restructuring before July 31, 2026, the IPO price will be adjusted proportionally for the purposes of resolving this market. If SpaceX does not complete its initial public offering and begin trading under the ticker symbol SPCX on Nasdaq on or before July 26, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A. Background Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) announced the launch of its initial public offering in June 2026. The company targeted its IPO pricing for June 11, 2026, with public trading scheduled to debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol SPCX on June 12, 2026. SpaceX planned to offer 555.6 million shares at $135.00 each, aiming to raise $75 billion at a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion. To secure the "SPCX" ticker, SpaceX negotiated with Tuttle Capital, which transitioned its SPAC and New Issue ETF from the ticker "SPCX" to "SPCK" in April 2026.