ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechDevelopingUpdated 1h ago

Will OpenAI close or announce a funding round at a $1 trillion+ valuation by November 15, 2026?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 3:44 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 36.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 18 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
36.4%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 20, 3:44 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

18 mana

Total volume

20 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
95%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

2

Trades

4

over 8 days

Largest order

18 mana

37 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 8 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$37 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI completes or formally announces a new primary equity funding round that values the company at **$1 trillion or more** (pre- or post-money, whichever is reported). **What counts:** an official OpenAI announcement (openai.com, OpenAI's official X account, or an OpenAI executive on the record), OR reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, OpenAI completes or formally announces a new primary equity funding round that values the company at **$1 trillion or more** (pre- or post-money, whichever is reported). **What counts:** an official OpenAI announcement (openai.com, OpenAI's official X account, or an OpenAI executive on the record), OR reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, or the Financial Times that the round has been **signed, closed, or agreed** (term sheets signed, money committed) at a valuation of at least $1T. **What does NOT count:** reports that OpenAI is "in talks", "weighing", "seeking", or "in early discussions"; secondary/tender-offer share sales by employees; an IPO itself; debt financing; compute or chip deals priced in equity warrants. Context: on ~Sep 30, 2026, outlets reported OpenAI was in early talks for a private round at roughly $1.2–1.4 trillion ahead of an IPO (e.g. https://aiweekly.co/alerts/openai-in-early-talks-with-investors-on-private-round-at-12t-valuation-before , https://propakistani.pk/2026/09/30/openai-reportedly-seeks-30-billion-at-1-4-trillion-valuation/ ). If reports conflict on whether the round has closed, I will wait up to 7 days after close for an official OpenAI statement or a Reuters/Bloomberg confirmation before resolving.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 4:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next622 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet97%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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