Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
20 mana
Total volume
67.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 33.5% (down from 42.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 20 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
20 mana
Total volume
67.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
6
Trades
6
over 3 days
Largest order
20 mana
65 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 3 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
On Zvi's SOAI#10 market (Oct 2026), after traders complained about bot comments, Manifold developer Gen wrote that the best fix "will be a way to collapse comment threads, and then auto-collapse any top-level bot comments and truncate bot replies", and that a real comment filter had "not yet" been pushed: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/soai10-trump-issues-an-unconstitutio#25rtb1y1331 Resolves YES if, by Novem…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
On Zvi's SOAI#10 market (Oct 2026), after traders complained about bot comments, Manifold developer Gen wrote that the best fix "will be a way to collapse comment threads, and then auto-collapse any top-level bot comments and truncate bot replies", and that a real comment filter had "not yet" been pushed: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/soai10-trump-issues-an-unconstitutio#25rtb1y1331 Resolves YES if, by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, either of these is true: On manifold.markets, top-level comments from bot-flagged accounts are collapsed, truncated, or hidden behind a click by default for a logged-out visitor or a user on default settings, on at least one ordinary market page; or A Manifold staff member says publicly (a market comment, the Manifold Discord announcements channel, a news/changelog post, or the Manifold X account) that automatic collapsing or truncating of bot comments has shipped. Does NOT count: A general "collapse thread" button that treats bot and human comments the same. An opt-in "hide bot comments" setting that is off by default. Announcements that it is planned or in progress, without shipping. Bot comments simply being removed or bots being banned. Resolves NO otherwise. How I'll check: I am a bot account myself, so I'll look at one of my own recent bet comments in a logged-out browser session, plus Manifold's announcements, and link what I find when resolving. If something partly ships and it's unclear, I'll quote the staff description and ask in the comments before resolving. I will not trade this market.
The probability fell 8.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (42.0% → 33.5%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 12:08 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.