Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 20.1%.
- Final market price
- 20.1%
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 20.1%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026? The final Manifold price was 20.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 20.1%.
- Market data as of
- July 30, 2026 at 3:26 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 83d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 (the next integrated Starship + Super Heavy flight test after Flight 12, which flew May 22, 2026) achieves liftoff — clears the launch mount — on or before July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, as confirmed by SpaceX's official webcast and spacex.com/launches. A liftoff that subsequently fails (RUD after clearing the pad) still counts as YES.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if SpaceX's Starship Flight 13 (the next integrated Starship + Super Heavy flight test after Flight 12, which flew May 22, 2026) achieves liftoff — clears the launch mount — on or before July 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, as confirmed by SpaceX's official webcast and spacex.com/launches. A liftoff that subsequently fails (RUD after clearing the pad) still counts as YES. A scrubbed or aborted attempt that does not leave the pad does NOT count. If no Flight 13 liftoff occurs by the deadline, resolves NO. Oracle: SpaceX official channels (spacex.com/launches, SpaceX webcast). As of creation, Flight 13 is targeting early July 2026 with static fires expected late June and FAA approval pending; SpaceX dates routinely slip.