Will either Aston Martin F1 car finish in the points in the 2026 Dutch GP?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 22.0%.
- Final market price
- 22.0%
- Event deadline
- August 23, 2026 at 10:59 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will either Aston Martin F1 car finish in the points in the 2026 Dutch GP? The final Manifold price was 22.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 22.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 25, 2026 at 11:23 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 7, 2026 at 5:29 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 23, 2026 at 10:59 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if either Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team car finishes in a point-scoring position (1st through 10th place) in the main Grand Prix race of the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled to take place on Sunday, August 23, 2026. The market resolves to NO if neither Aston Martin car finishes in the top 10 of the main Grand Prix race, or if the race is cancelled or postponed beyond 2026…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if either Aston Martin Aramco F1 Team car finishes in a point-scoring position (1st through 10th place) in the main Grand Prix race of the 2026 Dutch Grand Prix, scheduled to take place on Sunday, August 23, 2026. The market resolves to NO if neither Aston Martin car finishes in the top 10 of the main Grand Prix race, or if the race is cancelled or postponed beyond 2026. Rules and Edge Cases: Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by the official classification published by the FIA or on the official Formula 1 Results Page. Sprint Race Exclusion: Points scored during the Sprint race on Saturday, August 22, do not count toward the resolution of this market. Only the main Grand Prix race on Sunday, August 23, is valid. Driver Substitutions: If Fernando Alonso, Lance Stroll, or both are replaced by reserve or substitute drivers for this GP, the results of whoever is driving the Aston Martin cars will still count toward resolution. Post-Race Penalties: The market will resolve based on the official classification after any immediate post-race investigations and penalties are applied by the FIA stewards. Subsequent legal or technical appeals settled days or weeks after the race weekend will not affect resolution. Background The 2026 Dutch Grand Prix at Circuit Zandvoort marks the first race back from the summer break. It is scheduled to be the final Dutch Grand Prix for the foreseeable future, as Zandvoort is set to leave the F1 calendar in 2027. Aston Martin has faced a difficult start to the 2026 season due to early reliability and performance issues. After introducing a B-spec car layout at the Hungarian Grand Prix, the team is set to debut a highly anticipated "Spec 2" Honda power unit at Zandvoort. This upgrade focuses on faster engine combustion and lighter assembly weight, aiming to significantly boost race pace and help drivers Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll break back into consistent top-10 finishes. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ160.2
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 22.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 23, 2026