Will anyone other than Farage and Binface get their deposit back in the 2026 Clacton by-election?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 21.7%.
- Final market price
- 21.7%
- Event deadline
- August 13, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will anyone other than Farage and Binface get their deposit back in the 2026 Clacton by-election? The final Manifold price was 21.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 21.7%.
- Market data as of
- August 16, 2026 at 7:02 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 13, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 65d ago
What this market actually measures
A candidate must place a £500 deposit to run in a parliamentary election. They get their deposit back if they get more than 5% of the vote.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
A candidate must place a £500 deposit to run in a parliamentary election. They get their deposit back if they get more than 5% of the vote.