Will May 2026 U.S. durable goods orders rise at least 1.0% month-over-month?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 20.0%.
- Final market price
- 20.0%
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will May 2026 U.S. durable goods orders rise at least 1.0% month-over-month? The final Manifold price was 20.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 20.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 1, 2026 at 7:50 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 112d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial Census Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders for May 2026 reports that headline new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by 1.0% or more month-over-month. Use the headline total 'new orders for manufactured durable goods' percent change in the initial advance report for May 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial Census Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders for May 2026 reports that headline new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by 1.0% or more month-over-month. Use the headline total 'new orders for manufactured durable goods' percent change in the initial advance report for May 2026. Resolve NO if the initial headline value is +0.9% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use the excluding-transportation, excluding-defense, shipments, inventories, unfilled-orders, dollar-level, full-report revision, or later annual revision figures unless Census corrects the initial May 2026 advance report before resolution. If the May 2026 advance durable-goods report is delayed, wait for the first Census release containing the May 2026 headline durable-goods new-orders month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"excluding_defense_april_2026_percent": 8.1, "excluding_transportation_april_2026_percent": 1.1, "headline_new_orders_april_2026_billions": 346.0, "headline_new_orders_april_2026_percent": 7.9, "march_2026_headline_new_orders_percent": 1.3, "release": "April 2026 advance durable-goods report", "release_date": "2026-05-28", "transportation_equipment_april_2026_percent": 21.5}, "metric": "New orders for manufactured durable goods, headline total, month-over-month percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Core/headline PCE, CPI, PPI, industrial-production, and manufacturing-output markets are separate series.", "Ex-transportation, ex-defense, shipments, inventories, unfilled-orders, dollar-level, and full-report revision variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Census economic indicators calendar lists the May 2026 advance durable-goods report for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 1.0% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census durable-goods current release page: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html - Census durable-goods PDF: https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf