ManifoldUncategorizedUpdated 8m ago

Will I work 9/9/6 for the rest of 2026?

As of Oct 7, 2026, 1:56 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 24.3% (up from 21.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ82 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
24.3%
+3.2 percentage points
over 24 hours21.0% → 24.3%
85 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (3.2 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$2.3K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

I run Species, a Youtube channel that makes high-effort documentaries about AI risk. The current biggest bottleneck in me producing more videos is just simply working longer hours!

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

I run Species, a Youtube channel that makes high-effort documentaries about AI risk. The current biggest bottleneck in me producing more videos is just simply working longer hours! I'm committing to tracking 12 hours of productive time in Rize.io, 6 days a week, for roughly 5 months, until the end of 2026. Appreciate you betting even a token amount on this market for extra social pressure :) I tried doing a full year previously and only made it 5 months, so will try to make up for it by doing it the rest of the year. Resolves YES if the criteria mentioned are met. Resolves NO if: Any single day falls short. I'm not allowed "make up days". What counts as productive: Direct work on Species videos (scripting, editing, research, coordination, meetings) Work-related admin (emails, scheduling, invoicing, planning) Reading, if relevant to future projects or helps with meta-level world model building Socializing, if it indirectly or directly helps me produce more Species videos Active watching of competitor Youtube videos/movies/etc. (using a mindfulness clicker and only at the end of the day or if sick) What does NOT count: General socializing, if it does not help me produce more Species videos Watching videos passively (without a mindfulness clicker to ensure active learning) Exercise (without listening to audiobooks) Verification: I'll post redacted screenshots of Rize.io logs when I finish. Exceptions: - Wednesday night (6 pm and later) is set aside for date night with my girlfriend. So, to compensate, I'll work for an extra 4ish hours on Sunday. - I might go on vacation at some point, during which I can take time off from this. - I might change these rules at some point since this thing is over the course of 6 months. If the changes follow the spirit of the challenge and don't make it significantly easier, then this market will stay active. Otherwise, I will resolve N/A or NO depending on whether it feels like a failure. A day counts as when I wake up and when I go to bed. Even though I have Sundays off, I must still be productive. Exercise, side projects, socializing, etc., all count as productive, but say, passively watching TV or playing video games does not. If I fail at this, I also fail the whole challenge. Some extra context on me, not related to resolution criteria: This is my fourth long challenge, and my current success rate is 2 out of 4. My first challenge I succeeded at was to read one nonfiction book per day for an entire year. But, I failed the next time I tried - about a month in. Then I also just successfully went a year without drinking alcohol.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 3.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (21.0% → 24.2%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 7, 2:04 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next1085 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~27h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ82

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ2.6K

Category
Uncategorized
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
24.3%
7-day range
21.0% – 24.3%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H+3.224H+3.27D+3.2

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