Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 24.3%.
- Final market price
- 24.3%
- Event deadline
- November 4, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 24.3%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 24.3%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Platner, El-Sayed, and Talarico all win their Senate seats? The final Manifold price was 24.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 24.3%.
- Market data as of
- July 17, 2026 at 2:47 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- November 4, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 96d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if all three of the following candidates win their respective general elections for the U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections: Graham Platner (running in Maine) Abdul El-Sayed (running in Michigan) James Talarico (running in Texas) If any of these candidates fails to win their U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if all three of the following candidates win their respective general elections for the U.S. Senate in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections: Graham Platner (running in Maine) Abdul El-Sayed (running in Michigan) James Talarico (running in Texas) If any of these candidates fails to win their U.S. Senate general election, this market will resolve to NO. The market will resolve to NO if a candidate: Fails to secure the Democratic nomination in their state's primary election (e.g., Maine primary on June 9, 2026, or Michigan primary on August 4, 2026). Withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear as a major candidate on the general election ballot. Loses the general election on November 3, 2026. Sources for Verification: Resolution will be determined by the official, certified election results published by the respective state election authorities: Maine: Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions Michigan: Michigan Secretary of State Texas: Texas Secretary of State If major national news networks (e.g., AP, NBC, CNN) project a clear winner for all three seats, and there are no active, legally viable recount efforts or court challenges that could change the outcome, the market may resolve prior to official state certification. Background All three candidates are progressive Democrats running high-profile campaigns for the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections: Graham Platner is an oyster farmer, Marine Corps veteran, and economic populist seeking to unseat long-serving Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine. Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and public health official, is running in a competitive Democratic primary to replace retiring Senator Gary Peters in Michigan. James Talarico, a state representative and pastor, is the Democratic nominee in Texas challenging Republican nominee Ken Paxton (who defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary). This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.