Will my company make its first sale today?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 4.9%.
- Final market price
- 4.9%
- Event deadline
- August 23, 2026 at 11:45 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will my company make its first sale today? The final Manifold price was 4.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 4.9%.
- Market data as of
- August 26, 2026 at 11:45 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 23, 2026 at 11:45 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 55d ago
What this market actually measures
Currently i partially own company “LongWall Labs”. We have had the company open for two months with 0 sales.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Currently i partially own company “LongWall Labs”. We have had the company open for two months with 0 sales. This is a guess whether or not my company will make its first sale today Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the company "LongWall Labs" records its first official, completed customer sale on the day this market is created (defined by the creator's local timezone). This market will resolve to NO if no sale is finalized by 11:59 PM on that day. Resolution Source: Because LongWall Labs is a privately held company, sales data is not publicly accessible. This market will resolve based on the honest statement of the creator. The creator is encouraged to provide a redacted confirmation (such as a receipt, invoice confirmation, or dashboard screenshot) in the comments to verify the outcome. In the absence of conflicting evidence, the creator's self-report will be the primary source of truth. Definitions and Edge Cases: A "sale" is defined as a completed financial transaction where a customer pays money in exchange for a product or service from LongWall Labs. Pending orders, free inquiries, unpaid invoices, or internal test transactions do not qualify as a sale. Background LongWall Labs has been open for approximately two months with zero recorded sales. Public listings indicate that LongWall Labs operates with a restricted catalog intended primarily for lab-use and in-vitro research customers. This market tracks whether the business will secure its first paid customer order today. This description was generated by AI. .