Will Vinicius Junior sign for Arsenal?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 15.1%.
- Final market price
- 15.1%
- Event deadline
- August 6, 2026 at 2:34 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Vinicius Junior sign for Arsenal? The final Manifold price was 15.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 15.1%.
- Market data as of
- August 9, 2026 at 10:25 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 4, 2026 at 9:29 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 6, 2026 at 2:34 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 87d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either Arsenal F.C. or Real Madrid officially announces that Vinicius Junior has signed a contract to join Arsenal via a permanent transfer on or before August 20, 2026, at 11:59 PM GMT.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if either Arsenal F.C. or Real Madrid officially announces that Vinicius Junior has signed a contract to join Arsenal via a permanent transfer on or before August 20, 2026, at 11:59 PM GMT. This market will resolve to NO if no such official transfer is finalized and announced by this deadline (including if he remains at Real Madrid, signs a contract extension with Real Madrid, or transfers to another club). Primary Sources: Resolution will be determined by official club statements published on arsenal.com or realmadrid.com. Exclusions: Reports from tier-one journalists (e.g., David Ornstein, Fabrizio Romano), verbal agreements, agreements in principle, or completed medicals will not be sufficient to resolve the market to YES. Only official announcements of a finalized transfer by the clubs themselves will be Considered.