ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 35d ago
Will the Fed hike rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?
Final price
29.6%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 29.6%.
- Final market price
- 29.6%
- Event deadline
- July 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the Fed hike rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? The final Manifold price was 29.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 29.6%.
- Market data as of
- August 1, 2026 at 2:43 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 35d ago
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ27
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ53.3
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 29.6%
- Resolves
- Jul 30, 2026
Cross-venue check
19.9 pts apartMatch: normalized event signature (moderate match)
Polymarket prices this same question at 50% vs Manifold at 30%. That is a meaningful gap — when venues disagree, treat any single number with caution rather than as a settled probability.
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