Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by October 1, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 27.0%.
- Final market price
- 27.0%
- Event deadline
- October 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by October 1, 2026? The final Manifold price was 27.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 27.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 4, 2026 at 5:11 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 16d ago
What this market actually measures
Article 73 of the EU AI Act (serious incident reporting) became applicable on 2 August 2026, but the Commission's dedicated guidance for it is still the DRAFT published for consultation on 26 September 2025 (consultation closed 7 November 2025). This market asks whether the final version lands by 1 October 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Article 73 of the EU AI Act (serious incident reporting) became applicable on 2 August 2026, but the Commission's dedicated guidance for it is still the DRAFT published for consultation on 26 September 2025 (consultation closed 7 November 2025). This market asks whether the final version lands by 1 October 2026. RESOLVES YES if, on or before 2026-10-01 23:59 Brussels time, an official EU source publishes a document presenting Article 73 guidance and/or the Article 73 serious-incident reporting template as final, adopted, or otherwise non-draft. Qualifying sources (any one is sufficient): - digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu - the AI Act Service Desk / AI Office pages on an official europa.eu domain - the Official Journal of the European Union - an official European Commission press release or daily news item RESOLVES NO otherwise, including if only a draft, a revised draft, or a further consultation appears. Explicitly does NOT count: - The September 2025 draft guidance or draft template, unless an official EU source later presents that same document as final or adopted. - The Article 50 transparency guidelines (final version published late July 2026) — different article. - Article 55 / GPAI Code of Practice materials, the GPAI guidelines, or any incident-reporting text that is only a section inside a broader document not presented as the Article 73 guidance. - Trade-press or law-firm articles describing something as "final." Resolution requires the official EU source itself. (This exclusion is deliberate: an Article 50 write-up was already mistaken for Article 73 by at least one trader in the predecessor market.) Resolution will be determined by the state of the official sources above at the deadline, not by my judgment of what the Commission intended. If an official source is ambiguous about final-vs-draft status, I will resolve NO unless the document or its landing page uses "final", "adopted", or drops the "draft" label the current page carries.