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Home/Macro / Fed/Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?
PolymarketMacro / FedUpdated 2m ago

Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?

Market probability
10.5%
Little changed over 24 hours
29 days until the scheduled event
Deadline: September 11, 2026 at 6:40 AM ET
Resolution follows the outcome of the scheduled event.

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$7.5K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve according to the team winning 1st place at The International 2026 tournament, scheduled for August 13, 2026 - August 23, 2026. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team winning 1st place at The International 2026 tournament, scheduled for August 13, 2026 - August 23, 2026. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve to the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If the winner of The International 2026 is not determined by September 6, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What could move this market next?

  • The scheduled event takes placeSeptember 11, 2026 at 6:40 AM ET

    The contract resolves on the event's outcome.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 12, 6:41 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±9 pts.

Trading normallyLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Trading normally

Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.

Market data

24h volume

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

77/ 100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: limited history.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement0

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity78

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Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus

The latest price is a usable but caveated read — weigh it with the market state.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
53Medium
Where the price path tends to go next291 observed
  • Stable consensus88%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting5%
  • Trend continuation4%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

$65.6K

Liquidity

$120K

Total volume

$102.4K

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
1.0 pts
Best bid
10.0%
Best ask
11.0%
7-day range
10.5% – 10.5%
Resolves
Sep 11, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

77/100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: limited history.

  • Liquidity anchor+56
  • Price steadiness+30
  • Limited history-8
Trust score77 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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