Will I see the total solar eclipse for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 27.2%.
- Final market price
- 27.2%
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 3:11 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I see the total solar eclipse for at least ~5 seconds tomorrow? The final Manifold price was 27.2%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 27.2%.
- Market data as of
- August 15, 2026 at 12:49 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 26, 2026 at 5:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 3:11 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
I’m going to be watching from the Westfjords in Iceland. It’s supposed to be very cloudy.
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View full official resolution rules
I’m going to be watching from the Westfjords in Iceland. It’s supposed to be very cloudy. https://gottvedur.is/en/vaktin/kvolduppfaersla-fyrir-solmyrkvann-12-agust-spa-gerd-kl-23-manudaginn-10-agust/
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ340.6
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ427.6
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 27.2%
- Resolves
- Aug 12, 2026