Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
124.1 mana
Total volume
124.1 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Calvin Wang show up to 21W.023 on time?
As of Oct 19, 2026, 5:50 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 21.3% (down from 29.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 124.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
21.3%
−7.7 percentage points
over 24 hours29.0% → 21.3%
Moving fastBig move, weak backingResolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 11.7 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
60%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
12
over 1h
Largest order
50 mana
167.2 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 1h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$167.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 7.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (29.0% → 21.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 21, 2026 at 1:05 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 19, 6:03 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±33 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 11.7 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 8 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next610 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H-11.76H-7.724H-7.77D-7.7
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