Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 64.1%.
- Final market price
- 64.1%
- Event deadline
- August 2, 2026 at 5:29 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August? The final Manifold price was 64.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 64.1%.
- Market data as of
- August 5, 2026 at 4:33 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 31, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 2, 2026 at 5:29 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 87d ago
What this market actually measures
The Iliad consists of 24 books or roughly 500 pages. As of July 31, 2026, I am at the beginning of Book 13.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The Iliad consists of 24 books or roughly 500 pages. As of July 31, 2026, I am at the beginning of Book 13. To complete it by the August 3rd deadline, I must read the remaining 12 books (approximately 50% of the work) within 3 days. I started reading it sometime in mid-July, albeit in a very inconsistent manner. I will be reporting my progress daily. 1st of August update: yesterday I read up to the beginning of book 16. 2nd of August update: yesterday I read up to the beginning of book 19. 2d of August (update 2): Too busy today, I only managed to read half a book.