Will the U.S. directly strike Iranian territory before August 1, 2026?
Final price
99.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Resolved YES
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the U.S. directly strike Iranian territory before August 1, 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 12, 2026 at 9:21 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 130d ago
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