Will going to the Bay Area / manifest cause my AI timelines to change?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 25.1%.
- Final market price
- 25.1%
- Event deadline
- June 17, 2026 at 4:58 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 25.1%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will going to the Bay Area / manifest cause my AI timelines to change? The final Manifold price was 25.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 25.1%.
- Market data as of
- June 16, 2026 at 3:58 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 17, 2026 at 4:58 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 127d ago
What this market actually measures
My timelines are a median of like 10-15 years for some strong definition of AGI. Will going to the Bay Area / manifest cause my timelines to get affected at all?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
My timelines are a median of like 10-15 years for some strong definition of AGI. Will going to the Bay Area / manifest cause my timelines to get affected at all? I haven’t been to the bay since 2022.