Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Polymarket)
This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Final market price
- 100.0%
- Event deadline
- July 24, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? The final Polymarket price was 100.0%. This market has resolved. The final Polymarket price was 100.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 24, 2026 at 10:01 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:39 AM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- July 24, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 88d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.