Markets priced 10–20%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
124 markets · 21 resolved YES (17%)
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 20, 2026priced 12.9%YES✗
- Major Iran escalation this weekend?Manifold · Oct 19, 2026priced 15.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 19, 2026priced 10.0%YES✗
- Will I get a date for hoco 2026?Manifold · Oct 18, 2026priced 12.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 16, 2026priced 11.7%NO✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 16?Polymarket · Oct 16, 2026priced 16.2%NO✓
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 16?Polymarket · Oct 16, 2026priced 16.7%NO✓
- Will a famous person reply to my DM?Manifold · Oct 15, 2026priced 19.9%NO✓
- Will CPI rise more than 0.6% in September 2026?Kalshi · Oct 14, 2026priced 16.5%NO✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in September 2026?Kalshi · Oct 14, 2026priced 11.5%NO✓
- Will a woman win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics, Chemistry, Medicine, or Economics?Manifold · Oct 12, 2026priced 12.0%NO✓
- Un-e influenceur-se de la droite américaine est révélé-e comme étant une IA entre le 5 et le 12 octobre 2026?Manifold · Oct 12, 2026priced 19.0%NO✓
- Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?Manifold · Oct 9, 2026priced 14.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 9, 2026priced 15.8%YES✗
- Will @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 2026Manifold · Oct 6, 2026priced 20.0%YES✗
- Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE)Manifold · Oct 6, 2026priced 10.1%YES✗
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?Polymarket · Oct 4, 2026priced 12.5%NO✓
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 4 UTC-12?Manifold · Oct 4, 2026priced 12.6%NO✓
- Ethereum price at Oct 2, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshi · Oct 2, 2026priced 11.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 2, 2026priced 11.5%YES✗
- Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?Manifold · Oct 2, 2026priced 10.3%NO✓
- Will U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?Manifold · Oct 2, 2026priced 17.3%NO✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 1?Polymarket · Oct 1, 2026priced 11.5%NO✓
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 1 UTC-12?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 15.5%NO✓
- Mod queue empty by end Sept?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 17.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump appear together in the same new photo or video on X before October 1, 2026?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 15.1%YES✗
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $75 before Sep 27?Manifold · Sep 28, 2026priced 11.9%NO✓
- Will bobalobascrob get his T-shirt on or before his birthday?Manifold · Sep 27, 2026priced 13.2%NO✓
- Will a manifolder report on the Oreo chicken burger in the next month?Manifold · Sep 26, 2026priced 10.7%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 25, 2026priced 17.0%NO✓
- Opus 5.2 released in September?Manifold · Sep 22, 2026priced 14.9%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 21, 2026priced 13.5%NO✓
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Polymarket · Sep 20, 2026priced 18.4%NO✓
- Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?Kalshi · Sep 16, 2026priced 13.5%NO✓
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket · Sep 15, 2026priced 12.5%NO✓
- Will a Portion or All of Going-To-The-Sun Rd Close Again This Week?Manifold · Sep 15, 2026priced 12.2%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 15, 2026priced 19.1%NO✓
- Will the S&P 500 close above 7,720 on Friday?Manifold · Sep 11, 2026priced 13.0%NO✓
- Do you like 18% odds?Manifold · Sep 11, 2026priced 18.1%YES✗
- Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in August 2026?Kalshi · Sep 11, 2026priced 13.0%NO✓
- Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 19.0%NO✓
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $100 before Sep 8?Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 14.5%NO✓
- Will my this market post cross 100k Mana mark? (THIS ONE)Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 16.7%YES✗
- Will Falcons Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?Polymarket · Sep 5, 2026priced 15.0%NO✓
- Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?Polymarket · Sep 3, 2026priced 13.2%NO✓
- Will I start school in the next 5 days?Manifold · Sep 1, 2026priced 12.0%NO✓
- Will I reach 10k trader bonus this month in league?Manifold · Sep 1, 2026priced 17.9%NO✓
- Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?Polymarket · Sep 1, 2026priced 10.1%NO✓
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?Polymarket · Sep 1, 2026priced 12.5%NO✓
- Will my this market post cross 1M Mana mark? (THIS ONE)Manifold · Aug 31, 2026priced 12.1%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 28, 2026priced 16.0%NO✓
- Will Darline Graham get 60.00% or more in the SC Senate primary Runoff?Manifold · Aug 25, 2026priced 18.2%NO✓
- Will Victor Wembanyama score at least 25 points against Serbia on August 23, 2026?Manifold · Aug 23, 2026priced 15.5%NO✓
- Will any driver use intermediate or wet tyres during the Dutch GP?Manifold · Aug 23, 2026priced 13.6%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 21, 2026priced 11.7%NO✓
- Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?Polymarket · Aug 21, 2026priced 11.5%NO✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 19?Polymarket · Aug 19, 2026priced 10.1%YES✗
- Will trump taco on Canadian tariffs today?Manifold · Aug 18, 2026priced 15.7%YES✗
- Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 50.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?Manifold · Aug 18, 2026priced 19.1%NO✓
- Will Cory Mills be renominated for Florida's 7th Congressional District?Manifold · Aug 18, 2026priced 10.2%NO✓
- Will Oliver Larkin win the Florida 25th Democratic primary?Manifold · Aug 18, 2026priced 12.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 18, 2026priced 18.8%NO✓
- Will there be a mass influx of people to Melilla on the 15th?Manifold · Aug 17, 2026priced 15.4%NO✓
- Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 12.0%NO✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?Kalshi · Aug 12, 2026priced 17.5%NO✓
- Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in July 2026?Kalshi · Aug 12, 2026priced 15.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 11, 2026priced 15.5%NO✓
- Will trump announce a new US strike on Iran before August 10?Manifold · Aug 11, 2026priced 14.3%NO✓
- Will anyone help me find an edge forecasting Zambian elections by question close.Manifold · Aug 10, 2026priced 11.9%NO✓
- Ethereum price at Aug 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshi · Aug 8, 2026priced 16.5%NO✓
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 7, 2026priced 15.7%NO✓
- Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Polymarket · Aug 3, 2026priced 14.5%NO✓
- Will bot trades account for more than 75% of the total volume of trades in this market in 1 weekManifold · Aug 4, 2026priced 12.7%NO✓
- will there be a moomin prediction market by the end of july?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 15.9%NO✓
- Silver price above $90 in July 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 13.0%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 31, 2026priced 19.1%NO✓
- Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 19.7%YES✗
- Will any market in this tournament reach 100+ traders?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 15.0%NO✓
- Iran full airspace closure by July 24?Polymarket · Jul 24, 2026priced 11.0%NO✓
- If Opus 5 is released by EOM, will it out-benchmark Fable 5?Manifold · Jul 24, 2026priced 16.7%YES✗
- Will the US Congress extend Trump's 10% global tariffs before they expire on July 24, 2026?Manifold · Jul 24, 2026priced 16.5%NO✓
- Will MrBeast have 600,000,000 subscribers by July,24 2026Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 14.8%NO✓
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 11.9%NO✓
- Will the winner of the Golden Boot only win because of their performance in the 3rd place match?Manifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 17.6%YES✗
- Will anyone finish five chicken bowls in 20 minutes at RSI 2026?Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 16.3%NO✓
- Title of the movie spoken within "The Odyssey"?Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 10.2%NO✓
- Will this market get 30-60 unique traders by July 16?Manifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 18.5%YES✗
- Will June 2026 CPI inflation (YoY) come in above 4.2%?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 17.0%NO✓
- Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 15.6%NO✓
- Will Gemini 3.5 Pro be released on the Gemini API by July 12?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 18.0%NO✓
- Will anyone managram me 5000 mana in 1 week?Manifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 15.5%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 10, 2026priced 11.6%NO✓
- Will Graham Platner Drop out of the Maine Senate Race?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 11.5%YES✗
- Will I witness a fight during any of my travels to Switzerland in a month?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 18.3%NO✓
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 7, 2026priced 11.5%NO✓
- Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 15.3%NO✓
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5?Polymarket · Jul 6, 2026priced 18.9%NO✓
- Will GPT 5.6 Sol and Claude Fable 5 become broadly available to US customers on the same day?Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 17.2%NO✓
- Will a commenter post a link to a video showing Micah Lasher doing a magic trick?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 13.3%NO✓
- Discovered tracing mecanisems on gpt in juneManifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 19.9%NO✓
- Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 14.3%NO✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 17.1%YES✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. real personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 18.0%YES✗
- Will the U.S. personal saving rate be at least 3.0% in May 2026?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 18.6%YES✗
- Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 13.0%NO✓
- Will I (Mitpro) reach Expert in Codeforces again before July 1stManifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 18.4%YES✗
- Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by June 30?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 16.4%NO✓
- Will the price of silver exceed $70 at the end of JuneManifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 14.5%NO✓
- Will there be another Div. 4 in Codeforces before July 1stManifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 11.4%NO✓
- Gold price above 4,750.00 in June 2026Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 15.0%NO✓
- Will "Jackass: Best and Last" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekenManifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 11.0%NO✓
- Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 19.7%NO✓
- Will someone manigram me 500 mana?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 19.9%NO✓
- Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 10.4%NO✓
- Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $94 on June 20, 2026?Manifold · Jun 23, 2026priced 11.9%NO✓
- XRP BELOW $1 THIS WEEK?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 10.6%NO✓
- Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?Manifold · Jun 20, 2026priced 15.5%NO✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 77.0%?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 11.0%NO✓
- Will someone make out with me at Manifest while I wear the Panda Hat?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 18.1%YES✗
- Will it rain at manifest 2026?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 17.5%NO✓
- Will AMM 2026 release scores next week?Manifold · Jun 14, 2026priced 15.9%NO✓
- Resolves to the side with the most holders at market closeManifold · Jun 13, 2026priced 12.6%NO✓
- Will silver hit $60/oz by close on Friday?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 11.6%NO✓
- Will Minnesota ARML score breakdowns be posted before EOD June 10?Manifold · Jun 11, 2026priced 11.0%NO✓
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.