ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 43d ago

Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?

Final price
12.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 12.0%.

Final market price
12.0%
Event deadline
August 14, 2026 at 12:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)? The final Manifold price was 12.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 12.0%.

Market data as of
August 17, 2026 at 12:31 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 29, 2026 at 10:43 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
August 14, 2026 at 12:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
43d ago

What this market actually measures

This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 7, until 5pm EST on August 14. This is intended as a regular series.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 7, until 5pm EST on August 14. This is intended as a regular series. Something happens is defined as anything that: Zvi does NOT know about on August 7, 2026 at 5pm EST. Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase Is about AI. The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern. It is 100% entirely Zvi's judgment on whether a post was obligated or merely allowed. Resolves YES if this happens. Resolves NO if it does not. If you are betting YES because you believe something has happened, and it has not yet been mentioned in the comments, please mention it and link to it in the comments. To avoid leaking information, I will not resolve this market before close unless either (A) the post has been published, or (B) it is trading 90%+ and I know that it will eventually resolve YES. Update 2026-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified how the threshold for a speed premium post is applied: OpenAI's Astra solving ten open math problems would not have passed the bar (allowed but not obligated). OpenAI model hacking HuggingFace, Claude Opus 5 posts, and the Frontier Lab employee open letter would have passed.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ4.6K

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ13.6K

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
12.0%
Resolves
Aug 14, 2026

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Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14) — 12.0% probability | ProbCast