Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 12.0%.
- Final market price
- 12.0%
- Event deadline
- August 14, 2026 at 12:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)? The final Manifold price was 12.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 12.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 17, 2026 at 12:31 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 29, 2026 at 10:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 14, 2026 at 12:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 43d ago
What this market actually measures
This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 7, until 5pm EST on August 14. This is intended as a regular series.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 7, until 5pm EST on August 14. This is intended as a regular series. Something happens is defined as anything that: Zvi does NOT know about on August 7, 2026 at 5pm EST. Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase Is about AI. The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern. It is 100% entirely Zvi's judgment on whether a post was obligated or merely allowed. Resolves YES if this happens. Resolves NO if it does not. If you are betting YES because you believe something has happened, and it has not yet been mentioned in the comments, please mention it and link to it in the comments. To avoid leaking information, I will not resolve this market before close unless either (A) the post has been published, or (B) it is trading 90%+ and I know that it will eventually resolve YES. Update 2026-08-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified how the threshold for a speed premium post is applied: OpenAI's Astra solving ten open math problems would not have passed the bar (allowed but not obligated). OpenAI model hacking HuggingFace, Claude Opus 5 posts, and the Frontier Lab employee open letter would have passed.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ4.6K
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ13.6K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 12.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 14, 2026