Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket]
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 11.9%.
- Final market price
- 11.9%
- Event deadline
- July 14, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket] The final Manifold price was 11.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 11.9%.
- Market data as of
- July 27, 2026 at 1:36 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 14, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 86d ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files. Polymarket: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [link preview]