Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 19.7%.
- Final market price
- 19.7%
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 19.7%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 before August 1, 2026? The final Manifold price was 19.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 19.7%.
- Market data as of
- July 30, 2026 at 3:26 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 31, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 83d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if SpaceX conducts the launch (liftoff from the pad) of Starship Flight 13 — the next integrated flight test of the full Starship/Super Heavy stack following Flight 12 (launched May 22, 2026) — before August 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC. Resolution source: SpaceX official channels (spacex.com/launches, @SpaceX) and major space press (Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if SpaceX conducts the launch (liftoff from the pad) of Starship Flight 13 — the next integrated flight test of the full Starship/Super Heavy stack following Flight 12 (launched May 22, 2026) — before August 1, 2026, 00:00 UTC. Resolution source: SpaceX official channels (spacex.com/launches, @SpaceX) and major space press (Spaceflight Now, NASASpaceflight). "Launch" means liftoff occurs; the outcome of the flight (success/failure/RUD) does not matter. A scrub or pad abort that does not leave the pad does NOT count. If SpaceX renumbers the flight, the next integrated Starship/Super Heavy test flight after Flight 12 is the qualifying flight. Resolves NO if no such launch occurs before the deadline. As of creation, Flight 13 is targeting July 2026 (second flight of Starship V3).