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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 34d ago

Silver price above $90 in July 2026?

Final price
13.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.0%.

Final market price
13.0%
Event deadline
July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Silver price above $90 in July 2026? The final Manifold price was 13.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.0%.

Market data as of
August 2, 2026 at 1:35 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
34d ago

What this market actually measures

I will use this data set: Silver Jul 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance Using a GEV model fitted to the past 3 months of daily data, the 50% return level for the monthly maximum is $90.88. Will the actual maximum for July, at any moment, be above this model-derived level?

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

I will use this data set: Silver Jul 26 (SI=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance Using a GEV model fitted to the past 3 months of daily data, the 50% return level for the monthly maximum is $90.88. Will the actual maximum for July, at any moment, be above this model-derived level? See also: Silver price stays under $69 in July 2026? | Manifold

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ222.8

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
13.0%
Resolves
Jul 31, 2026

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