Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
2 mana
Total volume
6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
As of Oct 11, 2026, 1:54 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 39.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
2 mana
Total volume
6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
12
Trades
22
over 23h
Largest order
5.6K mana
8.9K mana traded across these 22 trades (last 23h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market concerns @jim's existing project/application to Lightcone Commons. Resolves YES if there is solid, credible evidence that the project received a positive finalized funding allocation or grant award through Lightcone Commons during October 2026 (October 1 through October 31, 11:59 p.m.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market concerns @jim's existing project/application to Lightcone Commons. Resolves YES if there is solid, credible evidence that the project received a positive finalized funding allocation or grant award through Lightcone Commons during October 2026 (October 1 through October 31, 11:59 p.m. America/Los_Angeles). Actual payment may occur later. Preliminary funding simulations, evaluator rankings, expressions of interest, and tentative recommendations without a finalized allocation do not count. A finalized allocation subject only to ordinary due diligence or payment logistics does count. Evidence may become available after the deadline if it clearly establishes that the qualifying allocation was made during October. Credible confirmation from Lightcone Commons, a participating funder, or documentation supplied by @jim may establish the outcome. Private application or grant documents need not be published. Resolves NO if no qualifying October allocation occurred. I may wait for reliable confirmation after the deadline rather than infer NO merely from a lack of public announcements. Context: Lightcone Commons currently targets first-round grant recommendations around October 23, with payment later: https://www.lightconecommons.com/ [link preview]
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
2 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
6K mana