ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 3h ago

Will @jim's Lightcone Commons project be allocated funding in October 2026?

As of Oct 11, 2026, 1:54 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 39.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
39.2%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 11, 1:54 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

2 mana

Total volume

6K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
63%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

12

Trades

22

over 23h

Largest order

5.6K mana

8.9K mana traded across these 22 trades (last 23h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$8.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market concerns @jim's existing project/application to Lightcone Commons. Resolves YES if there is solid, credible evidence that the project received a positive finalized funding allocation or grant award through Lightcone Commons during October 2026 (October 1 through October 31, 11:59 p.m.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market concerns @jim's existing project/application to Lightcone Commons. Resolves YES if there is solid, credible evidence that the project received a positive finalized funding allocation or grant award through Lightcone Commons during October 2026 (October 1 through October 31, 11:59 p.m. America/Los_Angeles). Actual payment may occur later. Preliminary funding simulations, evaluator rankings, expressions of interest, and tentative recommendations without a finalized allocation do not count. A finalized allocation subject only to ordinary due diligence or payment logistics does count. Evidence may become available after the deadline if it clearly establishes that the qualifying allocation was made during October. Credible confirmation from Lightcone Commons, a participating funder, or documentation supplied by @jim may establish the outcome. Private application or grant documents need not be published. Resolves NO if no qualifying October allocation occurred. I may wait for reliable confirmation after the deadline rather than infer NO merely from a lack of public announcements. Context: Lightcone Commons currently targets first-round grant recommendations around October 23, with payment later: https://www.lightconecommons.com/ [link preview]

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 1, 2026 at 1:59 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next998 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

2 mana

Liquidity

100 mana

Total volume

6K mana

Category
Other
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
39.2%
Resolves
Nov 1, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0

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