Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 15.6%.
- Final market price
- 15.6%
- Event deadline
- July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will US CPI inflation (12-month) for June 2026 be 4.5% or higher? The final Manifold price was 15.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 15.6%.
- Market data as of
- July 17, 2026 at 6:47 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 95d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index news release for June 2026 reports the 12-month change in the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted) as 4.5% or higher.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index news release for June 2026 reports the 12-month change in the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted) as 4.5% or higher. Resolves NO if it is 4.4% or lower. Context: April 2026 YoY was 3.8%; May 2026 (released June 10, 2026) came in at 4.2% — the highest in three years — driven largely by energy (+23.5% YoY). The June 2026 report is scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Oracle: the official BLS CPI release (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm). The headline all-items 12-month figure as printed by BLS governs.