Will I reach 10k trader bonus this month in league?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 17.9%.
- Final market price
- 17.9%
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I reach 10k trader bonus this month in league? The final Manifold price was 17.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 17.9%.
- Market data as of
- September 1, 2026 at 11:23 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 49d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if I (the market creator) earn at least 10,000 mana in unique trader bonuses that count toward my league score during the current month's league season. This market resolves to NO if my unique trader bonus total for the season is less than 10,000 mana when the season ends.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if I (the market creator) earn at least 10,000 mana in unique trader bonuses that count toward my league score during the current month's league season. This market resolves to NO if my unique trader bonus total for the season is less than 10,000 mana when the season ends. The final resolution will be verified using the league breakdown on my Manifold user profile. I will provide a screenshot of my profile's league tab or a direct link showing the finalized unique trader bonus total for the current month. If Manifold Leagues are discontinued or the "unique trader bonus" category is completely removed from league score calculations before the season ends, this market will resolve to N/A. Background Manifold Leagues are monthly competitions where users are grouped into tiers (such as Masters, Diamond, or Platinum) based on their performance. A user's league score is determined by their trading profits and any unique trader bonuses generated from eligible markets they have created during the active season. This market tracks whether the creator's unique trader bonuses will reach the 10,000 mana milestone in the current monthly season. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.