As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:10 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 41.6% (up from 7.8% 24 hours earlier). It had $80.5K traded in the past 24 hours, $2.6K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 1.4 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Source: Polymarket price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 9.6 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Order-book liquidity
$2.6K
Bid-ask spread
1.4 pts
24h volume
$80.5K
Total volume
$183.6K
It would take roughly $180.4 of buying to move the price up by ~5 pts.
Little money on the book — a modest order can move this price, so treat swings with care.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
65
Trades
200
over 2h
Largest order
$694.6
$6.7K traded across these 200 trades (last 2h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 9 12:00 PM ET to October 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: x.com
The probability rose 33.7 percentage points over the last 24 hours (7.8% → 41.6%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
The rules name this source as the basis for settlement.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.