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The probability decreased by 12.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as thin-market noise rather than a genuine repricing.
Will anyone help me find an edge forecasting Zambian elections by question close. The current Manifold probability is 37.2%, down 12.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as a Likely Noise with low confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±31 pts.
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Resolves Yes if someone helps me find an significant edge in forecasting the vote shares of the 1st round of Zambian elections by question close. Examples include "This poll shows that Fred M'membe is expected to split the votes of Brian Mundublie". The related metaculus market does not count as an edge, nor does the university poll or related Polymarket. The edge can be commented below or dmed to be
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketEXPIRING_SOONResolving soonFAST_MOVEMoving fastLOW_TRUST_MOVEBig move, weak backingDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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