ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsUpdated 4m ago

Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate?

Final price
14.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold

Not enough price history for this range yet.

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 14.0%.

Final market price
14.0%
Event deadline
November 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
14.0%
Probability seven days before event deadline
14.0%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Adriano Espaillat run in the 2026 NY13 general election as an independent or third party candidate? The final Manifold price was 14.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 14.0%.

Market data as of
October 11, 2026 at 5:25 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 11, 2026 at 5:28 PM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
November 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
4m ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Adriano Espaillat appears on the official general election ballot for New York's 13th Congressional District in November 2026 under any party line other than Democratic or Republican (such as the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, or an independent ballot line). It will also resolve to YES if he formally registers as an active write-in candidate with the…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Adriano Espaillat appears on the official general election ballot for New York's 13th Congressional District in November 2026 under any party line other than Democratic or Republican (such as the Working Families Party, Conservative Party, or an independent ballot line). It will also resolve to YES if he formally registers as an active write-in candidate with the Board of Elections for the general election. This market will resolve to NO if he does not appear on the general election ballot under a non-major party line, does not file to run as an active write-in candidate, or withdraws from the race entirely. The primary source of truth for this market will be the official candidate lists and certified election results published by the New York State Board of Elections and the Board of Elections in the City of New York. Background In the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary, five-term incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat was defeated by progressive challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier. Because New York does not have a "sore loser" law and allows electoral fusion, candidates who lose a major party primary can still technically appear on the general election ballot via a minor party line (like the Working Families Party) or by filing an independent nominating petition. This market tracks whether Espaillat will seek to retain his seat by running on a third-party or independent line in November. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

0 mana

Liquidity

100 mana

Total volume

207 mana

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
14.0%
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026