Will June 2026 CPI inflation (YoY) come in above 4.2%?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 17.0%.
- Final market price
- 17.0%
- Event deadline
- July 15, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will June 2026 CPI inflation (YoY) come in above 4.2%? The final Manifold price was 17.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 17.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 17, 2026 at 8:37 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 15, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 95d ago
What this market actually measures
The May 2026 CPI-U rose 4.2% over the prior 12 months (BLS, released June 10, 2026) — the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 — driven almost entirely by energy (+23.5% YoY). Core CPI was a much calmer 2.9% YoY.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The May 2026 CPI-U rose 4.2% over the prior 12 months (BLS, released June 10, 2026) — the largest 12-month increase since April 2023 — driven almost entirely by energy (+23.5% YoY). Core CPI was a much calmer 2.9% YoY. The June 2026 CPI is scheduled for release July 14, 2026 at 8:30 ET. This market: does headline inflation ACCELERATE further, or does the energy-driven spike start to fade? Resolves YES if the BLS June 2026 CPI-U (all items, U.S. city average, NOT seasonally adjusted) 12-month percent change is GREATER THAN 4.2%. Resolves NO if it is 4.2% or below. Source (sole oracle): the official BLS CPI news release for June 2026 — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm (archived release for that month). The headline NSA 12-month "all items" figure governs. No creator discretion.