Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
92.1 mana
Total volume
171.1 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will the next Claude Fable be able to autonomously make a watchable movie?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:24 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 57.0% (down from 67.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 92.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
57.0%
−10.3 percentage points
over 24 hours67.3% → 57.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — and today's move was spread across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
29%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
11
Trades
17
over 25h
Largest order
50 mana
170 mana traded across these 17 trades (last 25h).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one bettor.
Recent trade activity$170 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 10.3 percentage points over the last 24 hours (67.3% → 57.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 5:40 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next998 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
92.1 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
171.1 mana
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 57.0%
- 7-day range
- 46.7% – 67.3%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-10.37D+10.3
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