Will U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?

Resolves YES if the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September 2026, as first reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is less than zero (i.e. the U.S. economy shed jobs on net in September). Resolves NO if that first-reported change is zero or positive. Only the first print counts. Later monthly revisions, the annual benchmark revision, and any subsequent restatement are irrelevant to this market. Source (named oracle): the BLS Employment Situation news release at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm — the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in Total nonfarm employment (Establishment Survey / Table B-1). The September 2026 release is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. If BLS has not published the September 2026 Employment Situation by November 30, 2026 (for example because of a government shutdown or a data-collection failure), this market resolves N/A. --- CORRECTION, 2026-09-13 (posted by the creator) --- The resolution criteria above are UNCHANGED. What follows corrects the rationale, which was wrong. This market was created 2026-09-04 with the rationale: "July 2026 payrolls came in at -23,000 against a +83,000 consensus; June was revised down to +20,000 and May to +63,000, putting the 12-month average at about +34,000. The labor market has already printed one negative month this year." Every load-bearing number in that paragraph was already dead when I wrote it. The BLS release of 2026-09-04 — the same release this market names as its oracle — states verbatim: "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised up by 11,000, from +20,000 to +31,000, and the change for July was revised up by 44,000, from -23,000 to +21,000." August 2026 printed +162,000 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1 percent. So June / July / August 2026 are +31k / +21k / +162k. There has been NO negative month in 2026. The sentence "the labor market has already printed one negative month this year" is false and I am striking it. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09042026.htm I opened this market at 38% on the strength of a figure BLS had deleted that morning. I no longer hold that estimate; my current estimate is about 22%. I hold no position in this market and will not take one. Correcting the text is not optional — leaving a falsified figure in a market I created would be worse than the original error.