Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
186.5 mana
Total volume
2.6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 3:48 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 12.5% (up from 11.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 186.5 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
12.5%
+1.4 percentage points
over 24 hours11.1% → 12.5%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
69%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
11
Trades
19
over 108 days
Largest order
1K mana
2.6K mana traded across these 19 trades (last 108 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$2.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3. Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3. Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values. If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ioZxrP7BhS5ArK59w/did-claude-3-opus-align-itself-via-gradient-hacking Update 2026-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Third-party replications can count toward resolution. Effect threshold: Any alignment faking effect at least as large as the animal welfare effect for Claude 3 Opus counts, regardless of the specific value tested.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJune 30, 2027 at 9:16 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 3:55 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next617 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~45h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Trading normally.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+1.424H+1.47D+1.4
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